National Grid has put out its winter bill forecast, and the headline version — electric bills up 3 to 5 percent, natural gas a little cheaper — is already making the rounds. Before it hardens into “heating bills are spiking again,” it’s worth reading the fine print, because the forecast says less than the headline does, and in one way that matters around here, it also says nothing at all.
The first thing to know: the numbers are season totals. National Grid’s typical upstate electric customer is forecast to pay $22 to $39 more over the whole five-month heating season — November 1 through March 31 — than last winter. Spread out, that’s roughly four to eight dollars a month. The typical gas customer, using 713 therms across the season, is forecast to pay about $9 less than last winter. Real money, either way, but not the monthly jolt the percentage headline suggests. Five months of North Country winter will cost a typical National Grid household somewhat more than last year. It will not cost 5 percent more every month on top of everything else.
The second thing: “typical weather” is doing heavy lifting. The forecast is built on market prices as of the end of September and assumes a normal winter. Supply charges — the part of the bill that tracks wholesale energy markets — move with the weather, because cold snaps drive usage, and usage multiplies everything. Anyone who has heated through a Tug Hill January knows our winters don’t always read the forecast. Treat the projection as a planning floor, not a promise: a colder-than-normal season raises bills mainly through the meter, whatever the rates do. The delivery side of the bill, meanwhile, is higher than last year under the company’s approved rate plan — and that part doesn’t come back down if the winter turns mild.
The third thing — the North Country part: this forecast may not be about your house. It describes National Grid customers. Natural gas lines reach only part of the tri-county area, and a large share of homes here heat with oil, propane, kerosene, or wood — none of which appears anywhere in the forecast. If your winter arrives on a delivery truck, your “forecast” is the rack price the week the truck comes, and the honest planning number is last year’s gallons times a cautious price, not a utility’s percentage. Municipal electric customers — Massena is the local example — aren’t in the forecast either. And the households the electric numbers do understate are those heating with electricity itself: when your heat runs through the meter, winter usage is a multiple of the “typical” customer’s, and the same percentages land on a much bigger base.
So what is a household supposed to do with a forecast that is simultaneously true, modest, and possibly not about them? A few things, all of them October-sized tasks:
- Budget billing exists for exactly this. National Grid’s budget plan spreads the year’s cost into level monthly payments, so January stops being a surprise. Whatever the season does, the bill doesn’t spike with it.
- HEAP opens Monday, November 2, and it is first-come, first-served. The federal heating-assistance program covers homes heated with oil, kerosene, propane, natural gas, electricity, and wood — which makes it the one piece of help that reaches nearly every heating setup in the region. Income limits and how to apply in each county are in our guide: HEAP: Heating Help Opens November 2. File early; the money is finite. National Grid also runs income-eligible bill discounts (its Energy Affordability Program) and points customers to NYSERDA’s EmPower+ weatherization; ask about all three in one call rather than waiting for a bill you can’t pay.
- If wood is part of your mix, your price control is the woodpile. A cord bought right — true measure, genuinely seasoned, the right species — is the one heating cost a household here can still negotiate for itself: Buying Firewood in Northern New York.
None of this makes winter cheap. Heating a house through a northern New York winter is one of the region’s fixed costs of living, and it has been climbing for reasons bigger than one season’s forecast. But the number worth budgeting around this year is not a scary percentage — it’s last year’s actual bills, plus a little, minus whatever help you line up in November instead of January. That arithmetic is less dramatic than the headline. It’s also the kind you can plan a winter on.
Sources: National Grid predicts higher electric bills for the North Country this winter (NCPR, Oct. 16, 2026); National Grid Provides Winter Bill Forecast, Customer Assistance and Energy-Saving Resources for Upstate New York Customers (National Grid release, October 2026).